Tuesday, July 10, 2012

Oil & Natural Gas Corpn. Ltd. - 2009 Analysis

Oil & Natural Gas Corpn. Ltd.

Oil & Natural Gas Corpn. Ltd.

Learner Assignment - Data, Information, News, Analysis and Valuation

Data and News Relevant for analysis and valuation of the company will be given in this knol as a part of learning effort by students of investment analysis, security analysis and equity research courses. The information is meant for demonstrating the application of textbook principles by learners only. It is not for commercial decision making by investors. Investors are advised to contact and consult registered investment advisors only.

Authors

Contributers

 

 1. Financial Result

Quarterly Result

 
Quarter Dec '07 Mar '08 Jun '08 Sep '08 Dec '08
Sales Turnover 15,120.83 15,626.07 20,052.20 17,499.62 12,538.65
Other Income 862.98 2,033.71 1,050.02 1,397.01 1,118.66
Total Income 15,983.81 17,659.78 21,102.22 18,896.63 13,657.31
Total Expenses 7,089.06 9,849.41 8,296.81 8,994.24 7,435.37
Operating Profit 8,031.77 5,776.66 11,755.39 8,505.38 5,103.28
Total Extraordinary Income/Expenses -- -- 43.41 -- --
Gross Profit 8,894.75 7,810.37 12,805.41 9,902.39 6,221.94
Interest 11.4 12.34 3.81 97.44 4.11
PBDT 8,883.35 7,798.03 12,845.01 9,804.95 6,217.83
Depreciation 2,211.75 3,844.48 2,797.01 2,183.21 2,860.26
Depreciation On Revaluation Of Assets -- -- -- -- --
PBT 6,671.60 3,953.55 10,048.00 7,621.74 3,357.57
Tax 2,610.88 1,326.96 3,411.67 2,813.33 1,167.59
Net Profit 4,060.72 2,626.59 6,636.33 4,808.41 2,189.98
Prior Years Income/Expenses 305.82 0.51 -- -- 284.83
Dividend (%) -- -- -- -- --
Earnings Per Share 18.99 12.28 31.03 22.48 10.24
Book Value -- -- -- -- --
Equity 2,138.87 2,138.87 2,138.87 2,138.87 2,138.87
Reserves -- -- -- -- --
Face Value 10 10 10 10 10
Source:Asian CERC
http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/oildrillingandexploration/oilnaturalgascorporation/02/21/quarterlyresults/marketprice/ONG

 Half Yearly Result

 
Year Sep '06 Mar '07 Sep '07 Mar '08 Sep '08
6 mths 6 mths 6 mths 6 mths 6 mths
Sales Turnover 28,671.32 27,961.49 29,101.62 30,746.90 37,645.61
Other Income 1,359.66 2,883.44 2,048.78 2,896.69 2,353.24
Total Income 30,030.98 30,844.93 31,150.40 33,643.59 39,998.85
Total Expenses 13,522.07 14,637.75 12,764.03 16,938.47 17,291.05
Operating Profit 15,149.25 13,323.74 16,337.59 13,808.43 20,354.56
Total Extraordinary Income/Expenses -- 475.06 -- -- 43.41
Gross Profit 16,508.91 16,207.18 18,386.37 16,705.12 22,707.80
Interest 7.38 14.12 35.24 23.74 101.25
PBDT 16501.53 16668.12 18351.13 16681.38 22649.96
Depreciation 4,078.12 5,421.32 3,741.69 6,056.23 4,980.22
Depreciation On Revaluation Of Assets -- -- -- -- --
PBT 12423.41 11246.8 14609.44 10625.15 17669.74
Tax 4,130.44 3,896.85 4,901.43 3,937.84 6,225.00
Net Profit 8,292.97 7,349.95 9,708.01 6,687.31 11,444.74
Prior Year Income/Expenses -- -- -- 306.33 --
Dividend (%) -- -- -- -- --
Earnings Per Share(Rs) 58.16 34.36 45.39 31.27 53.51
Book Value(Rs) -- -- -- -- --
Equity 1,425.92 2,138.87 2,138.87 2,138.87 2,138.87
Reserves -- 59,020.98 -- 67,554.61 --
Face Value(Rs) 10 10 10 10 10
Source Asian CERC
http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/oildrillingandexploration/oilnaturalgascorporation/02/10/halfyearly/marketprice/ONG

Annual Results

 
Year Mar '04 Mar '05 Mar '06 Mar '07 Mar '08
Sales Turnover 32,063.93 46,362.94 47,922.87 56,632.81 59,848.52
Other Income 1,547.08 1,729.79 2,354.99 4,243.10 5,010.66
Total Income 33,611.01 48,092.73 50,277.86 60,875.91 64,859.18
Total Expenses 14,383.36 22,187.86 20,577.02 28,159.82 29,767.69
Operating Profit 17,680.57 24,175.08 27,345.85 28,472.99 30,080.83
Total Extraordinary Income/Expenses -- -- 640.54 475.06 --
Gross Profit 19,227.65 25,904.87 29,700.84 32,716.09 35,091.49
Interest 46.75 37.71 46.97 21.5 58.98
PBDT 19,180.90 25,867.16 30,294.41 33,169.65 35,032.51
Depreciation 5,571.86 6,201.61 8,457.28 9,499.44 9,797.92
PBT 13,609.04 19,665.55 21,837.13 23,670.21 25,234.59
Tax 4,958.77 6,685.12 7,313.74 8,027.29 8,920.05
Net Profit 8,650.27 12,980.43 14,523.39 15,642.92 16,314.54
Prior Years Income/Expenses 14.16 -2.62 -92.61 -- 387.11
Earnings Per Share 60.66 91.03 101.85 73.14 76.28
Book Value -- -- -- -- --
Equity 1,425.93 1,425.93 1,425.93 2,138.87 2,138.87
Reserves 38,326.49 44,638.32 51,917.40 59,020.98 67,554.61
Face Value 10 10 10 10 10

 2. News

  • ONGC Petro-Additions Ltd (OPAL) is set to shortly achieve financial closure for its Rs 12,440-crore petrochemical plant at Dahej special economic zone (SEZ) in Gujarat.
  • ONGC signs a MoU with Weatherford for enhancing the production of theirmature fields.

3. Background Information

a. Board of Directors

Directors Name Designation
R S Sharma Ch & Md
Ashok Kumar Balyan (Dr.) Director
A K Hazarika Director
N K Mitra Director
D K Pande Director
U N Bose Director
D K Sarraf Director
S Sundareshan Director
Sindhushree Khullar (Smt.) Director
A K Jain Director
R K Pachauri Director
V P Singh Director
P K Choudhury Director
Bakul Dholakia Director
A M Uplenchwar Director
S P Garg Co. Secretary

 b. Brief Profile

  • ONGC is India's biggest upstream oil and natural gas company.
  • It is ranked 335th(2008) in global Fortune 500 companies and contributes 77% of India's crude oil production.
                      [http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/global500/2008/full_list/301_400.html]
  • ONGC Videsh Ltd. is a 100% subsidiary of ONGC which acquires stakes in oversees oil and energy assets in order to ensure India's energy secutity.
  • ONGC is declared as one of the navratna companies by the Govt. of India
                      http://dpe.nic.in/newsite/navmini.htm                   

c. Subsidiaries

ONGC has following subsidiaries :
O N G C Videsh Ltd.
Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals Ltd.
O N G C Nile Ganga B.V.
O N G C Narmada Ltd.
[Source: PROWESS]

4. Awards

  •  ONGC receives FICCI Annual Award for Environmental Sustainability of BusinessesGC receives FICCI Annual Award for Environmental Sustainability of Businesses.
              [http://www.ongcindia.com/def1.asp?fold=headline&file=headline178.txt]
  • ONGC featured in the list of "World's most admired companies" in 2007
              http://www.ibtimes.co.in/articles/20071226/fortune-ongc-oil-gas.htm

 5. Analysis

 
Year Paid up equity capital(Rs.Crores)     Outstanding shares (Nos.)      PAT(Rs. Crores)     EPS (Rs) Bonus Shares Adjustment Factor Adjusted EPS
Dec-99 1425.92 1425933992 2754.5 19.32 Nil 0.66 12.7512
Dec-00 1425.92 1425933992 3629.47 25.45 Nil 0.66 16.797
Dec-01 1425.92 1425933992 5228.78 36.67 Nil 0.66 24.2022
Dec-02 1425.92 1425933992 6197.87 43.47 Nil 0.66 28.6902
Dec-03 1425.93 1425933992 10529.32 71.8 Nil 0.66 47.388
Dec-04 1425.93 1425933992 8664.43 63.07 Nil 0.66 41.6262
Dec-05 1425.93 1425933992 12983.05 91.03 Nil 0.66 60.0798
Dec-06 1425.93 1425933992 14430.78 97.36 01:02 0.66 64.2576
Dec-07 2138.87 2138872530 15642.92 71.66 Nil 1 71.66
Dec-08 2138.87 2138872530 16701.65 76.28 Nil 1 76.28

 Calculation of Fair Value by Graham-Rao Method

7 year Avg EPS 55.7116857
Avg/beginning 1.94183678
Growth rate 21.50%
Fair P/E 20
Fair Value 1114.23371
Applying Graham-Rao Method
1. Debt-Equity Ratio should be less than 1.
    Debt-Equity Ratio of ONGC is 0.44
2. Current Ratio should be atleast 2.
    Current Ratio of ONGC is 2.24.
3. Company sales should be greater than 100 crore annually.
    ONGC annual sales are more than 100000 crore.
4.Company should have paid dividend consistently for the past 10 years.
   ONGC has paid dividend consistently for the past 12 years.
5. Company should have made profits consistently for the past 10 years.
    ONGC has made profits for more than past 10 years.
6. Company's current Assets should be atleast twice its current liabilities.
    ONGC's Current assets are only 1.9 times its current liabilities
7. Company should have an EPS of more than 10% over the last 7 years.
    ONGC has an EPS of more than 20% over the last 7 years.
Thus we see that ONGC completes only 6 out of the 7 criteria laid down by Graham-Rao Method
Hence we reject the company as a candidate for "Long term Value Investing"
   
 
Dividend Discount Model
1.  Required Rate of Return:
Risk Free Rate of Return
NRFR = One year T-Bill Yield
Current (March’09) = 4.60%   (Source: http://stcipd.com/UserFiles/File/WeeklyReportFeb02.pdf)
 Risk Premium
Market Rate of Return ( Rm ) = 10%
Beta for ONGC = 1.044
For individual companies, 
Required rate of return = RFR + Beta*Risk Premium, i.e. 4.6% + Beta*10%
                                    = 4.6 + 1.044 * 10
                                     =  15.04%
 
Year
Dividend %
Bonus
Adjustment Factor
Adjusted Dividend growth
Growth%
1998
25
1
0.66
16.5
-
1999
55
1
0.66
36.3
120
2000
65
1
0.66
42.9
18.2
2001
110
1
0.66
72.6
69.2
2002
140
1
0.66
92.4
27.27
2003
300
1
0.66
200
116.45
2004
240
1
0.66
158.4
-20.8
2005
400
1
0.66
264
66.6612.5
2006
450
1:02
0.66
297
12.5
2007
310
1:02
1
310
4.37
2008
320

1
320
3.22
Seven Year Avg. Growth Rate = 29.95%
Avg./Beginning = 1.098
Rate of growth of dividend =3% p.a.
Applying DDM Model:

Where:
Vj = value of common stock j
Dt = dividend during time period t
k = required rate of return on stock j
 
S.No. Year Growth(%) Dividend(Rs) Discounting Factor Discounted Dividend
1 2008 3 32 1 32
2 2009 3 32.96 0.86 28.3456
3 2010 3 33.9488 0.74 25.122112
4 2011 3 34.967264 0.6364 22.25316681
5 2012 3 36.0162819 0.62 22.33009479
6 2013 3 37.0967704 0.5 18.54838519
7 2014 3 38.2096735 0.31 11.84499878
8 2015 3 39.3559637 0.38 14.9552662
9 2016 3 40.5366426 0.26 10.53952708
10 2017 3 41.7527419 0.0988 4.125170898
11 2018 3 43.0053241 0.14 6.020745379
12 2019 3 44.2954839 0.02 0.885909677
13 2020 3 45.6243484 0.0028 0.127748175
 Upon Applying Infinite DDM Model Fair Value of ONGC shares comes to be Rs 198
Assignment-2

Industry Analysis - Oil and Gas Sector

 

Industry Classification (ONGC): Oil and Gas Sector

Life cycle position:
Since Independence most heavy industries in India have been dominated by public sector giants. These companies though big by Indian standards were not able to match the might of global giants. In Oil and Gas sector specially size is the biggest criterion for a company to thrive because of the high capital costs.
Indian Oil and Gas companies were freed up from the shckles enforced by government only in the 1990's and hence they are still in growth phase of their life cycle.They are making heavy investments to build higher capacity and match up with the huge demand coming from domestic and industrial sectors.
Business cycle:
Oil and Gas business is highly dependent on business cycles due to following reasons:
  • The price of crude Oil is globally dictated by OPEC(A cartel of Oil Exporting nations)
  • The selling price of petroleum products is decided by the government in India.
  • Oil is a highly inelastic commodity(it cannot be substituted by any other product satisfactorily)
Due to these reasons any expectation of higher demand, or disruption in supply can very quickly change the fortunes of a company. Since most companies in India are either Oil Exploring and drilling(Upstream companies) or Oil refining and Marketing(Downstream companies).

Last one year has been a rather unpredictable time for most Oil companies.First Oil prices rose relentlessly from $25/Barrel to $147/Barrel within a span of 5 years.this lead to a bonanza for Upstream companies like ONGC, then Oil prices fell dratically to $33/Barrel thus providing huge profits for downstream companies like Indian Oil Corp. Currently Oil is around $65/Barrel due to expectations of subsiding of Economic Depression and higher demand.

 

•External Factors

Technology: Oil exploration and drilling technology is getting more cutting edge by the day. The effect of technology on this sector can be summed up as follows:
  • New exploration and drilling technologies are making it economically viable to extract more oil from same wells.
  • New Technology has made deep sea Drilling and exploration possible thus resulting in more exploitable reserves.
  • Natural Gas related technologies have helped provide a cleaner source of fuel for vehicles.
  • Better fuel efficiency has helped in reduced consumption of petroleum products.
  • Complex refineries are able to produce different product mix depending on demand from same crude oil.
Government: Government remains heavily involved in this sector as a
  • Promoter of most big companies.
  • As a price controller
  • As a agent for awarding exploration licenses.
The fortunes of companies in the sector are heavily dependent on government decisions.Government owned companies like ONGC,IOL,HPCL,BPCL,GAIL were all virtuaal monopolies before 1991.They still control large parts of the market.
Social: The rise of Indian middle class has presented the Indian Oil and Gas sector with tremendous opportunities of growth. The number of vehicles and Industries has grown exponentially in the country.Some of the country's biggest corporate houses are from this sector, hence they have the added responisbility of playing a role model when it comes to corporate governance.
Foreign: When it comes to Proven Oil reserves India can not meet its present demand with its own resources.Hence we have been importing more than 90% of our oil from abroad..Oil Subsidies burn the biggest hole in the pockets of Indian Government. India is also very vulnerable in terms of secure oil supply in times of war or global crisis. It is this realization that has lead the government to take certian strategic decision.
  • Foreign companies have been allowed to collaborate wit Indian companies in NELP(National Exploration and Lisecning Policy) auctions.
  • India has bought stakes in foreign Oil fields(Sakhalin(Russia),Sudan,Khazakstan, and Latin America) to secure Crude Oil supply.
  • RIL has made the largest OIL refinery in a single location in the world which is completely export oriented.
  • India is moving towards building 45 day strategic crude oil reserves for emergency disruptions, wars etc.
Demographic

•Demand Analysis

India is growing at a fast pace so long term demand for petroleum products is certain to increase at a fairly rapid pace.
Real and Nominal Growth
Last year the total consumption of petroleum products in the country was 131000 thousand onnes down 0.50 % from the previous year. This is due to adverse economic conditions and higher prices of petroleum products.

-Bargaining Power of Customers:
 Customers have relatively low bargaining power because petroleum products have no suitable substitutes and their are very few Oil Marketing companies. But their bargainiong power comes from the fact that they vote the government in power which in turn decides the price of the products.

•Supply Analysis:

90% of crude oil requirements of India are fulfilled by imports. India fulfills its Oil and gas requirements via 3 major routes:
  • Domestic production
  • Through stakes in foreign fields
  • Open market purchase
Domestic production of gas is set to receive a big boost with major findings being made in recent past.Total production last year was 12165 thousand tonnes thus we can see that India meets less than 10% of its petro product demand domestically.The start of production of natural gas in KG Basin by RIL and Cairn Energy in Rajasthan will provide a boostto country's indegenous production efforts.
–Degree of Concentration &  Competition:
Concentration: Oil sector in India can be described as an oligopoly controlled and regulated by Central government. The Govt. interferes regularly to resolve disputes,set prices and virtually every other aspect of business.
Competition: Low- Entry Barriers in the Industry are one of the highest. As it requires huge amount of capital as well as network.So once a player is well entrenched in the market he faces very little competition. Still private players like RIL have found it difficult to compete in the Indian market largely due to distortions created by subsidies available to PSU companies.
–Ease of entry: License to explore,drill,refine,market, Huge capital Investment, Costly techincal know-how.
The sector has one of the highest entry barriers.

-Bargaininging Power of Suppliers: The crude Oil exporters cartel OPEC is the organisation which virtually dictates the price and volume of crude oil available in the international markets.So the suppliers of crude oil have a virtual monopoly on prices at which they sell which is only tempered by the fear of a recession which may lead to lack of demand and hence a lose in pricing power.
–Industry capacity: India produced 12165 thousand tonnes of crude in 2007-2008 which is roughly 9% of its consumption. Though our refining capacity is much higher. It stood at 148968 thousand tonnes in the same year at a capacity utilization rate of 104%

•Profitability

Supply/Demand Analysis: Supply/Demand forces do not determine the prices in this industry. The difference in supply and demand can only lead to shortage or under utilization of capacity.Thus price does not remain the lever which can control demand. The shortage created due to these gaps has lead to creation of black markets especially in LPG sector.
Cost Factors: Domestic crude is much cheaper than international crude.But it can hardly meet the demands.
Due to inflexible nature of pricing of products the sector has developed a special mechanism for survival of the chain. Whenever the prices go to extreme either upstream or downstream companies suffer. Hence to facilitate survival a mechanism has been adopted by government in which companies and government both share losses  arising due to prive volatility.
Pricing: Different pricing mechanisms have been followed by governments at different times according to prevalent oil prices, current market prices and the political convenience of the day

  • Administered Price Mechanism- Government decides the price
  • Automated Update mechanism- Automatic increase where loses are shared by upstream and downstream companies and the government.
 
International competition and markets: International competition has been allowed only in exploration and drilling and not in refining and marketing in India.
 

              Economic Times Sectoral  (Industry) Indices - December 2008

Index Days Close Days Close Days Close
5th Dec 08 12th Dec 08 19th Dec 08 P/E ratio
ET 100 3204.09 12.13
Sectoral Indices
Auto-Ancillaries 4483.36 8.59
Automobiles 2424.13 8.51
Banks 5633.29 9.53
Capital goods 8653.69 17.44
Cement 4699.77 5.31
Chemicals 3968.69 5.32
Construction 9378.76 17.15
Consumer durables 3568.39 6.36
FMCG 3311.64 19.01
Fertiliser 3311.18 5.5
Hospitality 4267.23 10.3
Infotech 1948.15 9.36
Logistics 10875.04 10.8
Media 2412.8 19.71
Metals 6096.29 3.58
NBFC 10675.91 12.01
Oil & Gas 3186.18 15.86
Pharma 3119.78 13.34
Power 3612.03 19.36
Realty 3952.32 5.77
Retail 671.22 55.38
Shipping 5871.53 3.39
Sugar 8070.69 4.51
Teleservices 1655.4 15.11
Textiles 2922.81 17.97
Conglomerates 6600.24 8.25
Bollywood 784.71 9.76
Assignment of Anshul Srivastava
PGDIM-15, NITIE
2008-2010

Assignment of Anshul Srivastava
PGDIE-38, NITIE
2008-2010

Material to be posted.

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